WIsconsin's 7th Congressional district Election

With incumbent Tom Tiffany campaigning for election as Governor of Wisconsin, the Northwoods' seat in the House of Representative is up for grabs. Here's a brief rundown of the race and some analysis of where the candidates stand today.

PRIMARY DATE: 11 August 2026
ELECTION DATE: 3 November 2026

LAST ELECTION: Tom Tiffany (R) won with 63.6% of the votes

THE CANDIDATES

Republicans

• Michael Alfonso: 26 years old. Son-in-law of Sean Duffy, the current Secretary of Transportation and a former Representative of the 7th. From Vilas county, but WPR reported he was residing in Florida before declaring his candidacy. Filed his statement of candidacy (SoC) with a PO box in Hudson as his address.
• Jessi Ebben: Background in healthcare and manufacturing. WPR reported she last cast a ballot in Arcadia (Trempealeau county, outside the 7th) in 2025 but changed her residency to Stanley. Listed an Eau Claire address (outside the 7th) on her initial SoC but has since amended her address to a PO box in Superior.
• Kevin Hermening: Former Marine, notably held captive by revolutionaries during the Iran Hostage Crisis. Currently a financial advisor. WPR reported consistent voting in Mosinee suggesting long term residency. Filed his SoC with a PO box in Wausau as his address.
• Nina Threlfall-Baum: Business owner and adjunct professor. WPR reported that she's 30 year old and has consistently voted within the district suggesting long term residency. Filed for candidacy with a Rhinelander address.
• Cheryl Ann Runkel: Running as a write-in candidate and has no SoC on file with the FEC, at least not that I could find, though she does have a PAC. On her Facebook profile she says she's from Merrill but lives in Boulder Junction. 
• Paul Wassgren: Dropped out of the race in April. Corporate lawyer and native of Ashland but WPR reported he was living in Florida recently. Filed his SoC with an Ashland address.

Democrats

• Chris Armstrong: From Amery and now lives in New Richmond. Business owner. Filed his SoC with a New Richmond address.
• Fred Clark:  Business owner/forestry-consultant. Originally from Michigan, previously represented districts around Madison in the State Assembly. WPR reported that he switched his voter registration to Bayfield in 2022, and he filed his SoC with a Bayfield address.
• Ginger Murray: Attorney. WPR reported that she voted in Sun Prairie as late as April 2025 but that she grew up in northern Wisconsin and previously practiced law in the area. Filed her SoC with a New Lisbon address, well south of the Northwoods but within the 7th District.

THE MONEY

Amount raised (individual contributions)

1. Alfonso $750,860.74 
2. Ebben $331,819.34
3. Wassgren $103,960.22 
4. Hermening $22,907.83   

1. Clark $262,866.26
2. Armstrong $31,073.00
3. Murray $15,003.19

Amount spent

1. Wassgren $1,682,753.51 (most of this was to repay debt taken on by the campaign)
2. Hermening $223,695.08  
3. Alfonso $182,541.82
4. Ebben $147,986.52

1. Clark $ 118,042.32
2. Murray $30,590.33
3. Armstrong $27,938.22

Debt

1. Wassgren $2,000,000
2. Hermening $1,000,126.97
3. Alfonso $0.00
4. Ebben $50,000

1. Murray $102,563.26
2. Clark $5,000
3. Armstrong $0.00

Cash on hand

1. Wassgren $1,721,140.29
2. Hermening $868,344.70
3. Alfonso $731,818.92
4. Ebben $300,742.97

1. Clark $157,215.95
2. Murray $84,412.86
3. Armstrong $3,384.78
   

Contributions from outside Wisconsin

 (expressed as a percentage of the total amount of individual contributions)

1. Wassgren 96% - $330,202.80
2. Alfonso 66% - $486,237.54
3. Ebben 52% - $157,684.40   
4. Hermening 17% - $3,260.25

1. Murray 62% - $7,300.00
2. Armstrong 31% - $7,100.00
3. Clark 13% - $23,211.97

Top 10 states by residence of contributor - total contributed

(Wisconsin excluded)

1. Florida
2. California
3. Texas
4. Washington
5. D.C.
6. Virginia
7. Illinois 
8. New York
9. Maryland
10. Arizona
    

Top 10 occupation titles of contributors - total contributed

Republicans

1. Retired
2. CEO
3. Owner
4. Homemaker
5. President
6. Chairman
7. Consultant
8. Executive
9. Lawyer
10. Real Estate

Democrats

1. Not Employed
2. Retired
3. Retail Owner
4. Physician
5. Real Estate Development
6. Family Assembly Chair
7. Attorney
8. Consultant
9. Anesthesiologist
10. Business Owner

The data above reflects information retrieved from FEC.gov on 20 May 2026. The following PACs were queried as they were listed by candidates on their SoCs: 

ALFONSO FOR CONGRESS (C00924902)

FRED CLARK FOR WISCONSIN (C00920868)

GINGER FOR US(C00928044)

CHRIS ARMSTRONG FOR CONGRESS (C00901702)

EBBEN FOR WI (C00921734)

EBBEN FOR WISCONSIN (C00736108)

KEVIN HERMENING FOR CONGRESS (C00932335)

BAUM FOR CONGRESS (C00938019) - No PAC activity

CHERYL RUNKEL FOR CONGRESS (C00911552) - No PAC activity

WASSGREN FOR CONGRESS (C00924548)

Candidate websites and reporting from WPR were also used. This information is, to the best of my knowledge, correct. Should a correction be needed please message the website on its Facebook page.

-----------COMMENTARY-----------

What follows is my opinion and not objective fact

On May 11th TechnoMetrica released a poll they conducted of 7th District voters from April 28th to May 1st. The questions and the returns can be viewed in an excel workbook here. The questions revolve around Alfonso, in fact, he's the only candidate who has specific questions. The sample size was also small at just 504 respondents. The poll was conducted on behalf of "The League of American Workers", a "group" with connections to President Trump. As Trump has endorsed Alfonso, the results of the poll, and really any poll, should be viewed with a grain of salt, but they're probably generally correct. The results of the poll on Republican primary candidates are as follows: 

Alfonso 35%, Hermening 21%, Ebben 5%, Baum 5%, Not sure 33%

Trump's blessing seems to be propelling Alfonso forward as 38% of respondents reported being more likely to vote for him because of the endorsement.

Questions were not asked about Democrat candidates but some national questions were asked and they yielded interesting results. 44% of respondents disapprove of Trump's handling of the Presidency (vs. 49% approving), and the Republican Party polls even worse at 45% approve and 46% disapprove. A further 41% of respondents plan on voting in the Democratic primary. 

Those numbers would seem to indicate a significant shift from 2024 when just 34% of 7th District voters voted against Tiffany. Not enough to turn the race away from Alfonso, but enough to be notable. 

A bit of unrelated but eyebrow raising news is that respondents also indicated real trepidation about the Iran war with 43% of them expressing opposition to the war and just 51% supporting it. A reader might say "what do you mean just 51%, that's still a majority!" but this should be viewed in the context of previous wars. At its onset, 90% of Americans supported the invasion of Afghanistan, 62% supported the Second Iraq war, and 80% supported the Persian Gulf War. Viewed in that light, support for the conflict in Iran is extremely weak.

But back to the 7th District, Alfonso is likely to win. I have concerns about his youth and lack of experience. His recent refusals to participate in debates are also disappointing and seems to indicate a certain amount of pretentiousness and immaturity that I'm not enthusiastic about. 

As a veteran I'm drawn to others with military experience and Hermening checks the box there, but that isn't the only thing I vote on.

I'd like to vote for someone with real connections to the Northwoods who I feel can accurately represent its interests in Congress. I also don't want stuntsmanship and spectacles, I want consistency and professionalism. Those factors causes me to be skeptical of most of the candidates and at least two of them seem to be freelancing political opportunists. 

The last and perhaps most important thing worth discussing is the money. Trump's anointing of Alfonso has certainly opened the flood gates for the kid and the fact that most of his donations don't even come from within the state leaves me a bit dismayed. That fundraising gap doesn't necessarily indicate widespread support for Alfonso but instead could be the result of a dampening effect caused by victories of Trump allies in recent primaries elsewhere and a hesitation by Democrat donors to contribute to a district they feel is solidly red.

Anyhow, there it all is. Vote for who you want.

Disclosure: I am a conservative and have never voted for a Democrat in my life, but I've tried to be fair here.